A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
